미국 경기 침체 시그널 U.S. recession signal

미국 경기 침체 시그널 U.S. recession signal

1. 장단기 금리차 역전
-장단기 금리차 역전은 경기 침체의 전조로 여겨지며, 경기 침체가 발생할 가능성이 높아짐에 따라 장단기 금리차가 역전됩니다.
-장단기 금리차 역전은 1969년, 1973년, 1980년, 1990년, 2000년, 2008년 등 경기 침체가 발생하기 전에 발생했습니다.
-장단기 금리차 역전은 경기 침체의 전조일 뿐, 경기 침체가 발생한다는 것을 보장하지는 않습니다.

2. LEI 하락
-LEI는 Leading Economic Index의 약자로, 기업 활동을 나타내는 대표적인 경제지표입니다. 
-LEI는 제조업, 건설업, 서비스업 등 다양한 산업 분야의 기업 활동을 조사하여 산출됩니다. LEI가 상승하면 기업 활동이 활발해지고 있다는 것을 의미하며, 경기가 호전되고 있음을 시사합니다. 반대로 LEI가 하락하면 기업 활동이 위축되고 있다는 것을 의미하며, 경기가 악화되고 있음을 시사합니다.
-LEI는 경기를 예측하는 데 중요한 지표로, 미국 연방준비제도(Fed)는 LEI를 경기를 판단하는 기준 중 하나로 사용하고 있습니다. LEI가 상승하면 Fed는 경기가 호전되고 있다고 판단하여 통화정책을 완화할 가능성이 높습니다. 반대로 LEI가 하락하면 Fed는 경기가 악화되고 있다고 판단하여 통화정책을 긴축할 가능성이 높습니다.
-LEI는 경기를 예측하는 데 중요한 지표이지만, 완벽한 지표는 아닙니다. LEI는 기업 활동을 조사하여 산출되지만, 기업 활동은 경기의 모든 요소를 반영하지 못합니다. 따라서 LEI를 경기를 예측하는 데 사용할 때는 다른 지표와 함께 종합적으로 고려해야 합니다.
-LEI는 기업 활동을 나타내는 지표로, LEI가 하락하면 기업 활동이 위축되고 있다는 것을 의미합니다.
-LEI는 제조업, 건설업, 서비스업 등 다양한 산업 분야의 기업 활동을 조사하여 산출됩니다.
-LEI가 하락하면 경기 침체가 발생할 가능성이 높아집니다.

3. 인플레이션 상승
-인플레이션은 물가가 상승하는 현상을 말합니다.
-인플레이션 상승 원인 (2020년 이후)
 *공급망 병목 현상 : 코로나19 팬데믹으로 인해 공급망이 병목 현상을 빚고 있습니다. 이는 원자재, 부품, 완제품의 수급을 어렵게 만들고, 가격 상승으로 이어지고 있습니다.
 *수요 증가 : 코로나19 팬데믹으로 인해 경제 활동이 위축되었지만, 최근 들어 경기가 회복되면서 수요가 증가하고 있습니다. 이는 물가 상승으로 이어지고 있습니다.
 *에너지 가격 상승 : 이는 물가 상승으로 이어지고 있습니다.
 *임금 상승 : 노동시장이 타이트해지면서 임금이 상승하고 있습니다. 이는 기업의 비용 증가로 이어지고, 물가 상승으로 이어지고 있습니다.
-인플레이션이 상승하면 가계의 소비가 위축되고, 기업의 수익이 감소하여 경기 침체가 발생할 가능성이 높아집니다.
-인플레이션이 상승하면 실업률이 상승하고, GDP가 감소하는 등 경기 침체의 다양한 영향을 미칩니다.

4. 상업용 부동산 시장 하락
-경기 침체가 발생하면 상업용 부동산 시장이 하락합니다. 상업용 부동산 시장은 기업의 활동과 밀접한 관련이 있는데, 경기 침체가 발생하면 기업의 활동이 위축되어 상업용 부동산 수요가 감소합니다. 상업용 부동산 수요가 감소하면 상업용 부동산 가격이 하락합니다.
-상업용 부동산 시장 하락은 경기 침체의 악순환을 가속화할 수 있습니다. 상업용 부동산 가격이 하락하면 기업은 상업용 부동산을 매각하여 자금을 조달할 수 있습니다. 기업이 상업용 부동산을 매각하면 상업용 부동산 시장은 더욱 하락하게 됩니다. 상업용 부동산 시장 하락은 기업의 활동을 위축시키고, 경기 침체를 심화시킵니다.
-상업용 부동산 시장 하락은 경기 침체의 전조로 여겨집니다. 상업용 부동산 시장 하락이 발생하면 경기 침체가 발생할 가능성이 높습니다.

결론
미국 경기 침체 시그널은 경기 침체가 발생할 가능성이 높아짐에 따라 나타나는 현상입니다. 경기 침체 시그널이 나타나면 투자자들은 경기 침체에 대비해야 합니다.

경기 침체 시기에 투자하면 좋은 상품
-안전자산: 안전자산은 경기 침체에도 불구하고 가치가 비교적 안정적인 자산을 말합니다. 안전자산에는 현금, 예금, 국채, 금 등이 있습니다.
-경기 방어주: 경기 방어주는 경기 침체에도 불구하고 수요가 감소하지 않는 기업의 주식을 말합니다. 경기 방어주에는 식품, 음료, 헬스케어, 필수 소비재 기업의 주식 등이 있습니다.
-자산배분: 경기 침체 시에는 자산을 다양한 자산에 분산 투자하는 것이 좋습니다. 자산 배분은 투자 손실을 줄이고, 장기적으로 수익을 극대화하는 데 도움이 됩니다.

경기 침체는 불안정한 시기에 발생하기 때문에, 투자 시에는 신중하게 결정해야 합니다. 투자에 대한 자세한 정보를 얻으려면 전문가의 도움을 받는 것이 좋습니다.

1. Reversal of short- and long-term interest rate differences
-The reversal of the long- and short-term interest rate difference is considered a precursor to the economic downturn, and the reversal of the short- and long-term interest rate difference is expected as the likelihood of a recession increases.
-The reversal of the long- and short-term interest rate difference occurred before the economic downturn occurred in 1969, 1973, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2008.
-The reversal of the long- and short-term interest rate difference is only a precursor to a recession and does not guarantee that a recession will occur.

2. LEI Drops
-LEI stands for Leading Economic Index and is a representative economic indicator of corporate activity.
-LEI is calculated by examining corporate activities in various industries such as manufacturing, construction, and service industries. A rise in LEI means business activity is picking up, suggesting the economy is improving. On the contrary, a drop in LEI means business activity is shrinking, suggesting the economy is deteriorating.
-LEI is an important indicator for predicting the economy, and the U.S. Federal Reserve uses LEI as one of the criteria for judging the economy. If the LEI rises, the Fed is likely to ease monetary policy as it believes the economy is improving. On the contrary, if the LEI falls, the Fed will likely tighten monetary policy as it believes the economy is deteriorating.
-LEI is an important indicator for predicting the economy, but it is not a perfect indicator. The LEI is calculated by examining corporate activities, but they do not reflect all aspects of the economy. Therefore, when using LEI to predict the economy, it should be considered comprehensively along with other indicators.
-LEI is an indicator of corporate activity, and a decline in LEI means that business activity is shrinking.
-LEI is calculated by examining corporate activities in various industries such as manufacturing, construction, and service industries.
-A fall in LEI increases the likelihood of a recession.

3. Inflationary rise in inflation
-Inflation refers to the rise in prices.
- Causes inflation to rise (since 2020)
 * Supply Chain Bottlenecks: The COVID-19 Pandemic is causing supply chain bottlenecks. This makes it difficult to supply raw materials, parts, and finished products and leads to higher prices.
 * Demand Growth: Economic activity has been dampened by the COVID-19 pandemic, but demand has been rising recently as the economy recovers. This is leading to an increase in prices.
 * Energy Prices Rise: This is leading to an increase in prices.
 * Wages rise: Wages rise as labor markets tighten. This leads to higher costs for companies and higher prices.
- Rising inflation will dampen household consumption and reduce corporate earnings, increasing the likelihood of a recession.
- Rising inflation has various effects of the recession, including rising unemployment and falling GDP.

4. Commercial Real Estate Market Decline
- Commercial property markets will fall when the economy slows down. The commercial real estate market is closely related to corporate activity, and when an economic downturn occurs, business activity shrinks, reducing demand for commercial real estate. Commercial property prices fall as demand for commercial property decreases.
- Falling commercial property markets could accelerate a vicious cycle of economic downturns. If the price of commercial real estate falls, businesses can raise funds by selling commercial real estate. If a company sells commercial real estate, the commercial real estate market will fall further. Falling commercial real estate markets dampen business activity, and exacerbate the recession.
- The decline in the commercial property market is seen as a harbinger of an economic downturn. A decline in the commercial real estate market is likely to lead to a recession.

Conclusion
The U.S. recession signal is a phenomenon that appears as the possibility of an economic recession increases. When signs of a recession appear, investors should prepare for a recession.


A good product to invest in times of recession
-Safe assets: Safe assets refer to assets whose value is relatively stable despite the economic downturn. Safe assets include cash, deposits, government bonds, and gold.
-Defensive stocks: Defensive stocks refer to stocks of companies whose demand does not decline despite the economic downturn. Defensive stocks include food, beverages, healthcare, and stocks of essential consumer goods companies.
- Asset allocation: In times of recession, it is recommended that assets be distributed into a variety of assets. Asset allocation helps reduce investment losses and maximize long-term returns.

Recession occurs at times of instability, so you should make a careful decision when investing. For more information about your investment, we recommend that you get expert help.